A very gloomy scenario has been imagined by the scientists at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health Security. Accordingly, the next global pandemic might kill 1 billion people, and the scientists only referred to a flu-like virus in this case.
The scientists developed a simulation to estimate the results of such a global pandemic, including how rapidly it would spread and how fast the governments and authorities can react in such a case.
In order to make it harder, the scientists added that no vaccine had been discovered in the time window for this scenario. According to the simulation, only in the first two years of this global pandemic, more than 150 million people would die, worldwide.
According to virologists, we’ve been fortunate until now not to face a similar situation in reality. Even more, according to the experts, we are not ready for such a devastating global pandemic.
More than 1 billion people could die during the next global pandemic
“We don’t have the ability to produce vaccines to a novel pathogen within months rather than decades,” stated Dr. Eric Toner, the author of the simulation. “And we don’t have the global public health capabilities that would allow us to rapidly identify and control an outbreak before it becomes a pandemic,” the expert added.
Our history has many examples of such a virulent global pandemic, and the most known one is the Spanish Flu pandemic between 1918 and 1920, which devastated the world, infecting about 500 million people and killing between 50 million and 100 million. The majority of the victims of Spanish Flu were young and healthy adults, while the experts agree that the First World War contributed to the spread of the disease massively.
As reported by Dr. Eric Toner, a researcher at John Hopkins Center for Global Health Security and the author of this simulation, the next global pandemic will happen, undoubtedly, but nobody can say when.