The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia that erupted back in February 2022 doesn’t show many signs that it will end soon, unfortunately. One of the causes for the military conflict was that Ukraine was about to become a NATO member, as Vladimir Putin didn’t like the fact that the intergovernmental organization was extending its borders too close to Russia.
The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) reveals that since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, a minimum of 10,000 civilians, including over 560 children, have lost their lives, and more than 18,500 have suffered injuries. On the other hand, the total number of estimated casualties of the war is up to 500,000 souls, as Wikipedia informs.
While the Ukraine-Russia war continues, it surely has to end at some point. Hopefully, it won’t escalate into a much larger war in Europe with more countries involved, and here are the possible scenarios:
If Russia wins the war, Vladimir Putin will demand that Ukraine won’t become a NATO or EU member. Displacement of civilians would also occur, and numerous voices in the media claim that Russia will seek to attack other countries as well if it wins in Ukraine. Also, Russia will probably annex more territories from Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin might even demand that more countries will abolish their NATO memberships if his country wins the war in Ukraine, such as Poland and Romania. Back in late 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin demanded that NATO roll back from East Europe among his conditions to not start the war. Of course, NATO neglected such demands, considering them unacceptable.
If Ukraine wins the war, the country will become a NATO member. Russia has already lost a lot of its influence in Europe, as there are very few to almost no diplomatic relationships between Europe/USA and Russia whatsoever. Russia will be isolated even more by Europe and the US if Ukraine wins the war.
The US and Europe are helping Ukraine with military and humanitarian support, but there’s no telling how long they can still do it. The resources become more and more scarce.
The war freezes
The ongoing war in Ukraine might even become a frozen conflict, similar to the war in Korea that took place way back in the ’50s. If this happens once again, it means that the war won’t go on in an active way anymore, but the fundamental problems and disputes remain unsolved, and the situation remains tense. No peace treaty has been signed for the Korean War, and the Korean Peninsula still consists of the two countries, South Korea and North Korea.
At least in the case of the war in Ukraine, a frozen conflict wouldn’t lead to a clear resolution. But still, it would be a beneficial scenario considering that people won’t lose their lives anymore, neither soldiers nor civilians.
Hopefully, both Russia and Ukraine will try to find peaceful solutions in the end, as people are losing their lives.