According to New Medical Life sciences, a new study was released, proving that the effects of the lockdown imposed by the UK authorities are showing signs of a lower coronavirus spread. Not less than 1,019,018 confirmed cases, 53,293 deaths, 180 countries affected, and only 213,525 recoveries might not sound like an improvement, but according to News-Medical, the slow-down exists.
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine kept under surveillance 1300 people and their contacts from the day before the lockdown was imposed. Using their statements, the scientists computed a pattern to figure out how the lockdown would change the curve of the spread. The computation revealed a 70% decrease.
This is taking the reproduction number of the coronavirus. The reproduction number is the main feature of infectious disease spreading. It establishes the transmission velocity. When this number is going down below one, that is considered to be a sign that the spread entered in the decline phase.
UK Lockdown Slowed Down the Coronavirus Spread
Since March 23rd, the UK is in an official nationwide lockdown, but the measures for social distancing started on March 15th. For the segment of the population that lives in isolation, the reproduction number is somewhere between 0.37 and 0.89.
But not everyone is isolated. Although those who are playing by the rules of the lockdown helped a lot with the diminution of the spread, it isn’t enough to consider that the pandemic is backing-off. It is helping a lot, especially the medical system, which is overwhelmed as it is. If everyone would be doing it worldwide, we’d have a chance to watch the virus’ decline sooner.
“If we see similar changes across the UK population, we would expect to see the epidemic to start to decline. However, our estimates are not to be read as ‘job done.’ Rather, they should be used as motivation for us all to keep following UK government instructions,” said Professor John Edmunds, who was part of the study.